Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee7d51050f11f0ab4cf677bb7351a90b808a87e9c79658faf95243d0ceddba70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 41c | 7,200$2,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,952 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 4,282$2,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.21 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Under | 59c | 2,750$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 61c | 1,631$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 41c | 1,522$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 31c | 1,355$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 1,307$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 42c | 601.41$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 59c | 525.42$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.42 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 372.75$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.55 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 42c | 332.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.55 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Over | 41c | 244.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 59c | 178$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 148.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 29c | 108$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12c6…0691backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 77c | 98.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 59c | 87.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 37c | 56.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04e0…9448backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Under | 62c | 49.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…edb9backed Over | 41c | 46.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -7.6wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 41c | 38.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 63c | 36.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 31c | 36.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 35c | 29.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…642dbacked Under | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…2100backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…2ba1backed Under | 75c | 22.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5this page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.