Olympics · resolved market

Will Marcus Kleveland (NOR) win the gold medal for Snowboard Slopestyle - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef07c2346d04960cf49d5c8c447b14efd23dc3b3f0dcd9bba9792baa1cc9a354

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,408 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	16c	800.48$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.42	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes	51c	686$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.8	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd533…7f92backed Yes	13c	683.42$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	79c	653.97$515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.07	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea7…5fe6backed Yes	20c	500.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	11c	404.96$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.44	244	8.2%20 W · 224 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…3cabbacked Yes	18c	300.6$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf878…05c1backed No	14c	291.08$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250.33	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+3.0wins	+0.30per pick	10cpaid	+255.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes	10c	281.8$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes	26c	251.36$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.89	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed Yes	25c	243.58$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x975b…149bbacked No	80c	231$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Yes	10c	220.35$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.01	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Yes	15c	214.85$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.23	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes	18c	172.16$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.99	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…e2a2backed Yes	15c	157$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.05	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	18c	142.55$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	61	23%14 W · 47 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	13c	134.75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.02	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	8c	131.53$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	12c	112$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-62%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	16c	109.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebef…8731backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+93.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked No	70c	86$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	24c	62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e93…6a20backed Yes	24c	41.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No	75c	28.42$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.09	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	67cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Marcus Kleveland (NOR) win the gold medal for Snowboard Slopestyle - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event