Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef20cdc730da37c3b6d87c7e8205df9c05cd2ef1901b88b8a0082f9daeadd95b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 61c | 1,244$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.68 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 1,087$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.09 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 18c | 916.83$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.24 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 532.3$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.07 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 55c | 404.88$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.95 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 24c | 399.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.19 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 76c | 355.26$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 27c | 319.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.14 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Over | 51c | 303.03$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…3841backed Over | 47c | 259.74$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 23c | 226.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.16 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 55c | 205.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 80c | 187.56$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 42c | 182.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 64c | 153.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 76c | 129.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 119.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 76c | 118.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 47c | 106.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 32c | 104.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Under | 44c | 104.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 99.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 57c | 77.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 56c | 72.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 58.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 50c | 44.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 56c | 34.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 73c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Under | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4479…c84abacked Under | 80c | 21.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 79c | 20.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 77c | 18.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.