Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc95adb61f12313b565ca606410e039a4f59cc278043b52e0e8cef4b7284402f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 65c | 6,801$4,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380.23 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 35c | 1,600$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 35c | 1,199$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.49 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 55c | 931.42$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.14 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 25c | 931.38$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.23 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 35c | 700$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 45c | 634.16$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.37 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 41c | 435.92$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 73c | 170.92$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 59c | 165.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 154.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 60c | 146.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 66c | 97.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 34c | 93.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 67c | 80.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 64c | 78.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 67c | 70.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 36c | 61.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 76c | 55.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 38c | 52.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 42.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 38c | 38.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 37.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 61c | 36.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 40c | 34.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 35c | 28.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 62c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Over | 76c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.