NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef2122a623d2dc84293762e01bb465df0bd6d87a1a203dda1638555b45c1e66c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62ba…ef56backed Over | 50c | 7,587$3,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,794.07 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 6,172$3,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Under | 47c | 5,321$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 4,920$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 45c | 2,487$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.29 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 50c | 938$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 584.09$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 485.16$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.1 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…4f6fbacked Under | 48c | 367.56$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.43 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 263$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 4c | 258.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 7c | 252.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 49c | 240.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Over | 48c | 148.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 47c | 145.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e65…701cbacked Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x448a…3faabacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…027abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…9406backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Under | 46c | 46.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 51c | 41.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 36.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…122ebacked Under | 52c | 33.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 51c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…98b3backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 26.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Lakers vs. WizardsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 33.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.