NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f6032aecefa954e5001defcd1f92ce589aed2d41e9bf1e9e29f8ee0b2bc90b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers | 52c | 58,602$30,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,293.82 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Wizards | 48c | 29,010$14,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,044.85 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -11.0wins | -0.28per pick | 49cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Wizards | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wizards | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Wizards | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Wizards | 47c | 3,553$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.87 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Wizards | 48c | 3,104$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Lakers | 53c | 2,822$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.46 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Wizards | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…2ff4backed Lakers | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lakers | 49c | 1,792$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.77 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 53c | 1,597$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Wizards | 46c | 1,099$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.76 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 48c | 1,021$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lakers | 51c | 976.86$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.66 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Lakers | 52c | 821.19$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.17 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Wizards | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Lakers | 69c | 770.59$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.17 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 49c | 520.77$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.64 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Lakers | 52c | 410.09$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.96 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed8e…e61bbacked Wizards | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Lakers | 53c | 400.55$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.17 | 139 | 45.3%63 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Lakers | 53c | 346.2$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Lakers | 50c | 325.32$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.42 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Lakers | 51c | 294.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Wizards | 67c | 271.15$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.92 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Wizards | 48c | 264.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Lakers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…0103backed Lakers | 63c | 158.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Wizards | 37c | 130.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…0f68backed Lakers | 53c | 96.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Lakers | 52c | 84.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…8d40backed Lakers | 52c | 84.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Lakers | 53c | 74.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Lakers | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Lakers | 53c | 66.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked Wizards | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 50c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Wizards | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Lakers | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Lakers | 53c | 44.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Wizards | 48c | 41.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Lakers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards | 48c | 38.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Wizards | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Lakers | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Wizards | 41c | 24.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…15b7backed Lakers | 53c | 21.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…7b2dbacked Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Lakers | 58c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Lakers vs. WizardsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 33.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.