NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ccf13754cecf481c006e3a8da4e376f835f597e06456dfece9907f5d917400b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889c…e375backed Lakers | 56c | 958.44$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.44 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Wizards | 44c | 799.99$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Wizards | 41c | 450.14$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.06 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards | 43c | 378.22$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.72 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Lakers | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards | 39c | 254.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Wizards | 43c | 232.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 42c | 195.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…1852backed Lakers | 62c | 187.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Lakers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Wizards | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Wizards | 44c | 113.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Lakers | 57c | 105.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193e…76ebbacked Lakers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Lakers | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Lakers | 58c | 86.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Lakers | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9031…5265backed Lakers | 58c | 74.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Wizards | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Lakers | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…317fbacked Wizards | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…87f8backed Wizards | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Lakers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Wizards | 44c | 34.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed Wizards | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 31.8%55 W · 118 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffbb…b5b5backed Lakers | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…ab20backed Wizards | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Lakers | 77c | 27.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 198 | 61.6%122 W · 76 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403e…0222backed Wizards | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd09…b3b2backed Lakers | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…15e3backed Lakers | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…cf83backed Lakers | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dca…bf8cbacked Lakers | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Lakers | 61c | 16.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Lakers vs. WizardsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 33.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.