Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefce112c144913e1fab9a1ea2ca3ce635b1213513b499656dcb29ccf76659a59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Red Bull Salzburgof FC Red Bull Salzburg, Mjällby AIF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Mjällby AIF | 66c | 2,912$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.01 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 36c | 987$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.68 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 32c | 947.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.93 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Mjällby AIF | 66c | 903.63$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.4 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 34c | 753.79$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 36c | 655.94$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.8 | 1,041 | 48%500 W · 541 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Mjällby AIF | 65c | 647.85$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.91 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 35c | 567.95$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.17 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 29c | 550.49$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.93 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 35c | 512$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.8 | 325 | 47.7%155 W · 170 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfb…8beabacked Mjällby AIF | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38bd…b8f3backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Mjällby AIF | 77c | 239.02$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.96 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 36c | 178.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Mjällby AIF | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mjällby AIF | 63c | 71.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 36c | 64.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Mjällby AIF | 63c | 32.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Mjällby AIF | 65c | 25.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Mjällby AIF | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-2.5)this page
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Mjällby AIF O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Team to AdvanceFC Red Bull Salzburg won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.