Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd48799b4ebdefa9febbc7306eb8c80f9c1850cbfcb00936a6c4e34d27a48532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x308b…b223backed Over | 47c | 744.68$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 11c | 133.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 416 | 45.9%191 W · 225 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 102.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 412 | 45.6%188 W · 224 L | +25.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 325 | 47.7%155 W · 170 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 78.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Over | 47c | 62.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb8…067cbacked Under | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Over | 47c | 47.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 46c | 45.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…a787backed Over | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 47c | 26.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Mjällby AIF O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Team to AdvanceFC Red Bull Salzburg won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-2.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.