Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dfe3508bbc00f4173a8cc74bdad6d3bff5bb225f0601aaf60787b25d0383636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 4,186$2,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.5 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 52c | 2,975$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.17 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 2,162$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.89 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 37c | 1,771$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.49 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Under | 36c | 1,556$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.56 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 65c | 1,225$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.7 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…9f44backed Over | 68c | 1,091$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.51 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Under | 32c | 999.98$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 68c | 984$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.88 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Under | 5c | 964.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 43c | 820.1$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 65c | 753.68$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.71 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 41c | 730.13$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 605.52$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.04 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…1531backed Over | 38c | 585.26$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked Under | 9c | 523.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 32c | 515.68$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.04 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 70c | 484.81$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.37 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Under | 49c | 309.77$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Over | 66c | 298.91$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 50c | 256$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.04 | 222 | 37.8%84 W · 138 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 229.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…54ffbacked Under | 30c | 189.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 64c | 185.51$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…6e40backed Over | 65c | 153$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed Under | 36c | 138.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dea…774cbacked Over | 60c | 133$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 105.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 67c | 98.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 33c | 83.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…23b9backed Under | 70c | 82.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 31c | 64.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 61.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddd…8011backed Over | 45c | 61.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Under | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 42c | 49.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 416 | 45.9%191 W · 225 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Under | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…e85dbacked Under | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Under | 34c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 37.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 35c | 36.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 32c | 34.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 632 | 49.1%310 W · 322 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 35c | 31.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 331 | 42.9%142 W · 189 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 71c | 31.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 206 | 46.1%95 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 58c | 26.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 52c | 22.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 408 | 44.4%181 W · 227 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Mjällby AIF O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Team to AdvanceFC Red Bull Salzburg won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-2.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.