Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6adb1d8fd11361432c1453780d8a0a5d4650c8daa9af46e7211001a16b872d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 45c | 37,038$16,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,472.51 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Over | 42c | 13,959$5,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,123.99 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 12,395$5,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,176.31 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 6,819$3,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,692.11 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 55c | 6,295$3,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.2 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 64c | 4,973$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.93 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 55c | 3,509$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.61 | 838 | 45%377 W · 461 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 46c | 2,862$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.07 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 2,441$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.68 | 2,433 | 37.4%909 W · 1,524 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 51c | 1,582$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.19 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 13c | 1,303$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.38 | 473 | 42.1%199 W · 274 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 14c | 740$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 65c | 505.95$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 14c | 413.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 1,199 | 47.5%569 W · 630 L | -5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…a899backed Over | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddd…8011backed Over | 58c | 189.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 186.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 749 | 39.4%295 W · 454 L | -23.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…c7b6backed Under | 59c | 103.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…2fefbacked Under | 57c | 85.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 53c | 57.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 139 | 68.3%95 W · 44 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 39c | 48.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Under | 32c | 31.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 54c | 30.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 206 | 46.1%95 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Under | 58c | 21.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c33…3d60backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Mjällby AIF O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF: Team to AdvanceFC Red Bull Salzburg won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-2.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.