Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeffd28d205a3a14958f70579a2618017e23a5c022c18d60d42f3bd6f5751f22e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 50c | 475.45$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.83 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 269.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 267.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 27c | 265.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 261.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 253.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 247.2$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 238.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 210.52$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 171.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 73c | 164.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 135.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 47c | 121.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 26c | 116.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 111.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 108.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 104.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 98.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 95.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 61c | 91.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 42c | 79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 40c | 74.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 69c | 72.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 60.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 56.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 75c | 52.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 31c | 50.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 49.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 48.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 76c | 42.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 41.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 39.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 38.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 61c | 37.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…c472backed No | 60c | 33.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 43c | 31.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 75c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 28.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 71c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 26.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 69c | 26.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 75c | 22.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…2035backed Yes | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 73c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 62c | 16.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 76c | 14.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 71c | 14.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.