Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe499d96cbddb25fd80d4e6a1f5ac12d35814fc5cd7a058797ab42b49c97d28eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 79c | 254.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 53c | 234.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 193.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 43c | 158.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 26c | 157.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 42c | 153.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 141.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 42c | 136.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 114.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 73c | 112.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 57c | 104.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 102.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 31c | 101.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 100.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 99.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 98.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 58c | 86.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 86.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 71.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 68.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…9ef3backed Yes | 41c | 66.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 65.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 64.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 58.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 57.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 58c | 57.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 44c | 52.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 51.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…4c27backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 49.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 55c | 44.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 28c | 44.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 37c | 40.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 33c | 40.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 27c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 54c | 34.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 41c | 33.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 28.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 59c | 26.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 64c | 26.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 76c | 22.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 76c | 22.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…ba62backed Yes | 71c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…9a75backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…8263backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…c431backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 18.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 17.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 69c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.