MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeffea4cc4ef8b7e7bbf01ca5cf84c566b04c89e09abaa1e51aa22b291fc08d12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc163…aed8backed Over | 58c | 21,032$12,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,831.52 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 19,986$8,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,414.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Under | 48c | 685.52$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5de…cabebacked Under | 47c | 251.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 60c | 166.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 38c | 129.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Under | 61c | 106.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 92.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fb…d4dabacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 60c | 48.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 46c | 24.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.