MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x467040210a7422362df33185bad71882c06c361a70bf8b4bce3d7381a8c09274
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef1b…8697backed No | 54c | 10,302$5,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,550 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed No | 54c | 9,100$4,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,887.45 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 46c | 7,278$3,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,930.31 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 46c | 3,775$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.03 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 1,729$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.7 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 47c | 1,467$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.72 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 49c | 1,312$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.91 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2e…f6c3backed No | 54c | 903.43$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked No | 53c | 367.92$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 48c | 363$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.65 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 361.1$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.32 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 299.72$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…8374backed No | 51c | 292$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 47c | 268$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed No | 52c | 205.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 346 | 45.1%156 W · 190 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 51c | 153.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 46c | 153.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 58c | 113$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…d171backed No | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 48c | 83.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 375 | 46.9%176 W · 199 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Yes | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Yes | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed No | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 193 | 41.5%80 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1,306 | 50.7%662 W · 644 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked No | 51c | 26.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 52c | 20.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giantsthis page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.