MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61043aa9250cf177d4318f83e6e9879029b64e29272147dd4164115b2d00dd78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Los Angeles Angels | 74c | 2,973$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.04 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 25c | 2,323$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 695.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 582.39$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.97 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed San Francisco Giants | 8c | 375.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 31c | 354.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 318$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 267.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked San Francisco Giants | 28c | 237.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 204.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 112.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 40c | 108.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Los Angeles Angels | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 103.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…6c15backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 83.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…c8d0backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 55.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 31c | 36.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 32.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…fd02backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 29.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.