Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Valentin Royer vs Taylor Fritz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf02feadd5b8b3f3b2e35133acbc858e6fe26aca21fc81f09dffc24d92e718b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fritzof Royer, Fritz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Royer | 1c | 10,971$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Royer | 16c | 4,717$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.8 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Royer | 22c | 2,807$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.54 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Royer | 12c | 2,651$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.67 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fritz | 77c | 2,042$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.22 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Royer | 14c | 1,937$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.38 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Fritz | 73c | 1,376$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.92 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Royer | 12c | 1,181$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.62 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Royer | 13c | 1,177$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.83 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Royer | 21c | 1,136$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.85 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Royer | 14c | 1,063$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.82 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Royer | 32c | 947.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Royer | 21c | 801$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.28 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Royer | 23c | 765$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.69 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Royer | 13c | 728.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…e2fcbacked Royer | 8c | 700$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Royer | 15c | 673.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Royer | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Royer | 30c | 466.66$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Fritz | 80c | 419.55$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Royer | 12c | 392.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Royer | 5c | 299.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Royer | 21c | 266.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Fritz | 75c | 258.65$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Royer | 19c | 256.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Royer | 17c | 230.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Royer | 5c | 205.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Royer | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Royer | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Royer | 31c | 181.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Royer | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Royer | 20c | 162.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf1…6eb1backed Royer | 11c | 157.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Fritz | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Royer | 17c | 130.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a5…f10bbacked Royer | 20c | 126.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Royer | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Royer | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Royer | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Royer | 18c | 99.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Royer | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…3380backed Royer | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Royer | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Fritz | 73c | 68.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 398 | 44.2%176 W · 222 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Fritz | 80c | 64.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…4600backed Royer | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Royer | 17c | 58.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed Fritz | 72c | 49.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Fritz | 80c | 49.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Fritz | 79c | 37.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…b82cbacked Fritz | 80c | 29.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Fritz | 73c | 28.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…37d3backed Fritz | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 142 | 72.5%103 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…3f2dbacked Fritz | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…6899backed Fritz | 79c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Fritz | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Valentin Royer vs Taylor Fritzthis page
- Royer vs. Fritz: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Royer vs FritzFritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Royer (+1.5)Fritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Royer (+2.5)Royer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.