Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf055c8dfc8cc4519fd6c9f02d8816d53af5a504aecc2d197ee2d53f540bb808b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 918.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 44c | 741.04$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.41 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 57c | 535.71$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.52 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 3c | 387.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 306.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 304.96$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 55c | 270.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 57c | 247.58$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 43c | 228.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.31 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 55c | 215.6$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 56c | 170$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 163.38$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 62c | 161.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 43c | 155$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 109.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 100.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 99.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 93.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 86.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 58c | 83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 63c | 78.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 77.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 76.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 72.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 71.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 64c | 65.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 65.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 56.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 41c | 47.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 45.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 45.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 43.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 41.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 55c | 40.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 51c | 39.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 36.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 45c | 33.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 57c | 24.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 61c | 23.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.