South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf06e2cbbf463a5f21b6dd132639f51b09cb11036d90b2224d06849a06d822eaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 25c | 3,181$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.86 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 8c | 2,163$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.8 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 1,691$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.82 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 19c | 1,662$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.68 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Yes | 73c | 1,560$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.26 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…c32ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,185$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…0607backed Yes | 74c | 1,046$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.33 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed Yes | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 23c | 480.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…f579backed Yes | 79c | 471.52$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e07…80d1backed Yes | 73c | 404.3$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 52c | 372.01$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.93 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 22c | 367.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…28d3backed Yes | 33c | 348.52$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.51 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 10c | 324.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e8…6edabacked Yes | 32c | 299.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 32c | 293.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 34c | 282.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab7c…746dbacked Yes | 78c | 280.71$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked No | 70c | 267.73$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.41 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…e46abacked Yes | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 22c | 230.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed Yes | 78c | 228.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 21c | 228.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973f…dc4ebacked Yes | 30c | 223$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 22c | 222.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584b…3d36backed Yes | 79c | 209.33$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 16c | 197.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 22c | 186.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1b…c69cbacked No | 7c | 155.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…3327backed Yes | 79c | 149.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…cc4bbacked Yes | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Yes | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 25c | 126.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed Yes | 79c | 125.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Yes | 35c | 109.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Yes | 78c | 108.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked Yes | 79c | 98.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 26c | 91.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…c4f1backed Yes | 78c | 85.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…f695backed Yes | 79c | 84.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 23c | 84.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked No | 22c | 80.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 76c | 75.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 78c | 64.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…8cb3backed Yes | 77c | 64.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 51c | 61.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Yes | 78c | 61.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…a012backed Yes | 34c | 57.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 22c | 53.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed Yes | 78c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…f781backed Yes | 78c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 69c | 42.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 32c | 40.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…ae0dbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92af…8b55backed Yes | 77c | 39.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…3155backed Yes | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Yes | 74c | 35.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed No | 68c | 34.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 48c | 34.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…311fbacked Yes | 75c | 29.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2f…4520backed Yes | 76c | 27.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6e…8ca3backed Yes | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…2c68backed Yes | 78c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8a…45aabacked Yes | 79c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 60c | 17.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707c…bb74backed Yes | 73c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ce0ebacked Yes | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Yes | 73c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes | 78c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will CA Aldosivi win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA Aldosivi end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.