TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Team Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,797
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,797 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f76…aea6backed Team Lynx24c2,210$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.0218356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Liquid78c1,069$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.1645061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid75c1,014$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.291,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked Team Lynx21c968.7$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.55251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Lynx22c965.74$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.7786659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Lynx22c804.55$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1771,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx25c792.58$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.82,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Liquid75c766.28$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.199844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid75c752.5$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.052,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Liquid75c692.28$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.5943049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe163…9d33backed Team Liquid74c659.55$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Liquid77c656.47$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6847046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5005…f1b3backed Team Lynx25c648.74$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.36520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid76c640.53$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.1641056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Lynx24c544.43$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.196245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Team Lynx10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b51…2b54backed Team Liquid75c492.5$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.121643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f9…2aa9backed Team Lynx24c483.86$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx26c439.15$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.141,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2487…0ad0backed Team Lynx25c366.72$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.682429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid75c356.54$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.911,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Team Liquid77c349.58$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.417954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Liquid74c332.57$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4736654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…2412backed Team Lynx30c321.02$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.791625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Team Lynx30c315.05$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8211648.3%56 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Lynx23c312.72$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5361745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Lynx20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6056243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Liquid73c297.77$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6277256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Liquid78c251.52$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3341944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Liquid73c250$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Team Liquid80c238.45$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6916752.7%88 W · 79 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x810b…0848backed Team Lynx12c185.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8613144.3%58 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde5…d1acbacked Team Lynx27c177.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.819949.5%49 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Team Lynx29c166.69$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8630041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Team Lynx29c165.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8729240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Team Lynx30c159.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.932148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Lynx21c157.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3451550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ee3…7c36backed Team Lynx30c148.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4224131.5%76 W · 165 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Liquid78c145.41$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0461057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed Team Lynx23c134.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6120939.2%82 W · 127 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx24c132.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.351,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Liquid78c129.39$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.781,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid76c120$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.274549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Team Lynx23c103.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6631835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Team Lynx22c98.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9664123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea4…4d25backed Team Liquid74c98.44$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.596346%29 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Team Liquid72c98.32$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5318952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Team Lynx32c91.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8625246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Team Lynx29c84.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8417448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Team Liquid72c84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5255147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56f0…3068backed Team Lynx29c82.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.798031.3%25 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Team Lynx25c77.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.125248.8%123 W · 129 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Lynx23c76.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5867043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Team Lynx27c69.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1372637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx18c66.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9470236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Team Liquid79c64.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.65977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Team Liquid77c59.94$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7920954.5%114 W · 95 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid68c59.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Lynx29c57.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked Team Lynx28c51.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3519951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Liquid79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.546872.2%338 W · 130 L+36.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Team Lynx27c45.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2224518.8%46 W · 199 L-31.2wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Liquid76c39.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.631,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Team Liquid72c26.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.446555.4%36 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Liquid74c18.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.932,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Liquid74c16.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2851751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.