Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0989771190f14db4b1d825ea3f54dde8af6ddde4cadc8fb82e8b979e5d97e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Team Lynx | 24c | 2,210$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.02 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Liquid | 78c | 1,069$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.16 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid | 75c | 1,014$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.29 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked Team Lynx | 21c | 968.7$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Lynx | 22c | 965.74$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.77 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Lynx | 22c | 804.55$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx | 25c | 792.58$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.8 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Liquid | 75c | 766.28$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.1 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid | 75c | 752.5$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.05 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Team Liquid | 75c | 692.28$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.59 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…9d33backed Team Liquid | 74c | 659.55$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Team Liquid | 77c | 656.47$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…f1b3backed Team Lynx | 25c | 648.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid | 76c | 640.53$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Team Lynx | 24c | 544.43$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Team Lynx | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…2b54backed Team Liquid | 75c | 492.5$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…2aa9backed Team Lynx | 24c | 483.86$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx | 26c | 439.15$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2487…0ad0backed Team Lynx | 25c | 366.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid | 75c | 356.54$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Team Liquid | 77c | 349.58$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Liquid | 74c | 332.57$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…2412backed Team Lynx | 30c | 321.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Team Lynx | 30c | 315.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Lynx | 23c | 312.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Lynx | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Liquid | 73c | 297.77$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Team Liquid | 78c | 251.52$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Team Liquid | 73c | 250$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Team Liquid | 80c | 238.45$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Team Lynx | 12c | 185.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…d1acbacked Team Lynx | 27c | 177.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked Team Lynx | 29c | 166.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 300 | 41.3%124 W · 176 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Team Lynx | 29c | 165.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Team Lynx | 30c | 159.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Lynx | 21c | 157.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed Team Lynx | 30c | 148.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Liquid | 78c | 145.41$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…3841backed Team Lynx | 23c | 134.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 209 | 39.2%82 W · 127 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx | 24c | 132.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Liquid | 78c | 129.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Team Lynx | 23c | 103.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Lynx | 22c | 98.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…4d25backed Team Liquid | 74c | 98.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Team Liquid | 72c | 98.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Team Lynx | 32c | 91.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 252 | 46.8%118 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Team Lynx | 29c | 84.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Liquid | 72c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Team Lynx | 29c | 82.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Team Lynx | 25c | 77.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Lynx | 23c | 76.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Team Lynx | 27c | 69.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx | 18c | 66.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Team Liquid | 79c | 64.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Team Liquid | 77c | 59.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid | 68c | 59.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Lynx | 29c | 57.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Team Lynx | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Liquid | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Team Lynx | 27c | 45.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Liquid | 76c | 39.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Team Liquid | 72c | 26.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Liquid | 74c | 18.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Liquid | 74c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.