Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b8319383ee2a42b81c3012543519feea70b1dcb4c364918a3859d399edda43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 68c | 483.37$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 402.34$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 75c | 317.71$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 22c | 272.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 62c | 163.02$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 27c | 161.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 63c | 152.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 13c | 149.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 135.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…6a0cbacked Yes | 74c | 134.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed No | 39c | 127.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 61c | 124.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 112$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 61c | 111.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 108$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 58c | 106.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 54c | 99.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 37c | 89.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 79.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 76.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 78c | 72.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 60c | 66.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 65.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 64.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 63.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 62.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 62.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 59.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 45c | 53.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 80c | 52.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 29c | 52.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 35c | 50.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 57c | 50.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 49.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 48.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 63c | 45.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 42c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 43.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 42.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 31c | 39.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 32.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 39c | 30.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 57c | 28.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641c…b22fbacked Yes | 78c | 26.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes | 43c | 25.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 53c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 41c | 24.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…9ac6backed Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…4b3abacked Yes | 63c | 23.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 49c | 21.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 72c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…243bbacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 52c | 19.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 63c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.