Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0e3354eaa4c15e4dbe0c61ad03d939cc23e5ca0e6697dc5388f7ac87945a62f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,089$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.23 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 8c | 699.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 587.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 526.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 504.22$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 6c | 412.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 10c | 320.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 8c | 313.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed Yes | 5c | 299.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed Yes | 11c | 288.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea4…4a77backed Yes | 11c | 286.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 274.95$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 10c | 260.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 14c | 236.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 229.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 23c | 214$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8d…9c0bbacked Yes | 23c | 213.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 22c | 199.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e26…915cbacked Yes | 17c | 179.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 155.91$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 10c | 145.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 9c | 129.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 16c | 121.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 12c | 120.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…1f77backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 10c | 119.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 76c | 117.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 16c | 109.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 15c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…d8debacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…aa50backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 67cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfc…c4cebacked Yes | 20c | 93.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 85.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 81.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 78.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 76.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bf…07e5backed Yes | 18c | 76.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 23c | 57.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 79c | 29.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 29.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…0261backed No | 79c | 13.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.