Serie A · resolved market
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0f79929bdff0c51f838c037bdf95aedd3e3c18f8773f65d496dabbc5bceb22b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 4c | 2,434$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.75 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 1c | 1,900$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 986.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.43 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 635.68$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.19 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Over | 33c | 364.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 9c | 276.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.13 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Under | 17c | 179.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 66c | 178.86$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 30c | 152.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 11c | 94.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 16c | 70.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 27c | 66.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Over | 28c | 64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 28c | 55.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 26c | 42.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…3543backed Over | 79c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Over | 76c | 17.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5this page
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Over won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Over won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Parma Calcio 1913 won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)Parma Calcio 1913 won
- Spread: Parma Calcio 1913 (-1.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.