Serie A · resolved market
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc30422b35866d9ec28748863ec16ca86bced2c2704403ccb59c5d73d8585e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 1,454$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.35 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 73c | 1,368$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.36 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 732.43$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.61 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 19c | 595.29$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 16c | 480.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 10c | 290.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 26c | 163.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…49babacked Under | 28c | 137.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c0…7e02backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 78c | 118$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 27c | 109.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 73c | 99.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 27c | 98.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823f…0490backed Under | 26c | 96.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 54c | 96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 25c | 84.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 73c | 71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 26c | 51.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 27c | 44.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 73c | 30.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 75c | 29.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 72c | 26.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 76c | 22.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7f…de96backed Over | 73c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 68c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Over | 78c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5this page
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Over won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Over won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Parma Calcio 1913 won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)Parma Calcio 1913 won
- Spread: Parma Calcio 1913 (-1.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.