NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0ff7257867250518d7e496580fbc22ec23d4b30127b2c6406080365ab7c3225
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 4,131$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.48 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 2,832$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.04 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 2,122$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.54 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Over | 51c | 1,792$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.84 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,700$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 1,338$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.66 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 51c | 576.47$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Under | 51c | 407.71$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.78 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 51c | 214$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 51c | 98.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Over | 50c | 58.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 53.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…de85backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 25.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…a2c0backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.