NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8bb061823a8c3f31b44f8948843f451aecb99400ac20ae5b08c5814ade1babf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Timberwolves, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 52c | 37,943$19,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,038.59 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Timberwolves | 48c | 10,087$4,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,812.09 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Timberwolves | 49c | 6,058$2,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,968.44 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Timberwolves | 49c | 4,800$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.28 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 51c | 4,459$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Timberwolves | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Timberwolves | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 47c | 3,199$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.89 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Timberwolves | 50c | 1,830$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,328$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.31 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Pacers | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa216…179bbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,122$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,002$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.79 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 48c | 903$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Pacers | 52c | 808.52$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 642.86$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…4362backed Pacers | 51c | 585$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.65 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…5a60backed Timberwolves | 49c | 585$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.65 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Pacers | 54c | 450$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Pacers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed Timberwolves | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Pacers | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pacers | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…fc45backed Timberwolves | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -16.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 50c | 85.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Timberwolves | 49c | 78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Pacers | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…a394backed Timberwolves | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…4dcfbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eca…ef3abacked Timberwolves | 51c | 22.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Pacers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ff…5311backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…fb74backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d87…ff0bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.