NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97d0b31f74c8603e04a3117b6bbc9a0c88157a39ef4d1e6d500c8dae08a17610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Timberwolves, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Pacers | 40c | 170,000$68,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102,000.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6b14backed Timberwolves | 60c | 170,000$102,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102,000 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 38c | 1,937$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Pacers | 3c | 1,027$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.19 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Timberwolves | 62c | 900$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Timberwolves | 58c | 699.29$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.59 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 38c | 456$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Pacers | 45c | 215$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Pacers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Timberwolves | 61c | 196.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Timberwolves | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked Timberwolves | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Pacers | 41c | 154.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 59c | 150.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…53efbacked Pacers | 42c | 119.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Timberwolves | 64c | 110$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Timberwolves | 62c | 107.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Timberwolves | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Pacers | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Timberwolves | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Timberwolves | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 62%62 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Timberwolves | 61c | 93.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 182 | 39%71 W · 111 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Timberwolves | 61c | 90.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…7345backed Timberwolves | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Pacers | 36c | 74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…559abacked Timberwolves | 62c | 67.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Timberwolves | 63c | 64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pacers | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Pacers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee90…4d8cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Timberwolves | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Pacers | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…f82cbacked Pacers | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…a69fbacked Timberwolves | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Timberwolves | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e4…f323backed Timberwolves | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…8e11backed Timberwolves | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a67…c830backed Timberwolves | 61c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…1ab2backed Timberwolves | 63c | 19.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.