Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will the match between FC Porto and Roma end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1361b77efd0aa7f95f96d5579d85f97e30659828a25af8e231f1dc16cedb229
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 24c | 1,105$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.71 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 48c | 620$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…566bbacked Yes | 31c | 319.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 31c | 244.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b0…55c3backed No | 70c | 139$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 51c | 107.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…3dbbbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…6dcdbacked No | 70c | 83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9142…2a0fbacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 69c | 64.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…aab2backed Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…d290backed No | 70c | 62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e24…44b1backed Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…224cbacked Yes | 30c | 60.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked No | 66c | 54.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 69c | 44.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…30a6backed Yes | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…dbbdbacked Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c7…185bbacked Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5590…bb95backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Yes | 31c | 38.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 39c | 27.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…d8b9backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 69c | 20.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…0452backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between FC Porto and Roma end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Porto beat Roma?No won
- Will Roma beat FC Porto?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.