Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Roma beat FC Porto?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5b17f3f2df1bceb6a16f80803d67171ee106e2d4e747c350fa0cb6b138e1a17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 51c | 1,434$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.36 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 36c | 1,100$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c7…e344backed Yes | 35c | 1,002$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…9717backed No | 65c | 999.96$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 37c | 763.47$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.99 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 38c | 522.13$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.41 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 64c | 469$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.84 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed Yes | 40c | 313.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…64adbacked Yes | 34c | 291.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…9830backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 68c | 262.71$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x212a…dbe8backed Yes | 38c | 252.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +191%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked No | 67c | 199.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…3d33backed Yes | 35c | 161.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…35b1backed Yes | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4105…a02bbacked Yes | 35c | 147.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…208ebacked Yes | 33c | 145$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 111.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…c39cbacked Yes | 35c | 80.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598d…3244backed No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 33c | 74.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9594…eefabacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed No | 33c | 74.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 65c | 71.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ca…b09cbacked Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…3de7backed Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…e8fabacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 35c | 42.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51c…6b2cbacked No | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Yes | 35c | 37.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…e625backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…133bbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…e30ebacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…de78backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf690…15cdbacked Yes | 59c | 27.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…366bbacked No | 41c | 27.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…ea64backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 67c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe8…5bbdbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…382ebacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Roma beat FC Porto?this page
- Will FC Porto beat Roma?No won
- Will the match between FC Porto and Roma end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.