NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf13945852ac854c9231df463f05037b9faad7570fa0a9a728fe6fcac5fac42ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 48c | 6,224$2,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,237.6 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 1,878$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.55 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 53c | 1,698$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.06 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 48c | 1,656$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.95 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,638$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 53c | 1,378$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.66 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 996$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.92 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 53c | 609$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.23 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 52c | 404$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.08 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 180$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Over | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 51c | 99.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 51c | 97.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 53c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 69.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 66.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…2e0dbacked Under | 48c | 31.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…ccfdbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 173 | 53.8%93 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…8b5bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 230.5this page
- Lakers vs. ClippersClippers won
- Lakers vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Lakers vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.