MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1976d018c07b029c67c1e9d0ea546c1a8b35a1a23714531d9e4bed71ef3d617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,632 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 3,296$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.91 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 2,437$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.76 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…db70backed San Francisco Giants | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 1,581$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.73 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 1,421$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.6 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 999.81$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.9 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 732.88$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 314$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.56 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 301$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.73 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 298.84$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.61 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 258$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 209.94$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 67c | 207.14$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…7d10backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 196.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 196$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 132.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 127$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 89.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 74.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 66.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 65.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked San Francisco Giants | 71c | 57.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 48.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 48.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 43.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed San Francisco Giants | 25c | 42.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed San Francisco Giants | 67c | 39.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 35.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 27.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 20.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 17.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.