Euroleague · resolved market
Monaco vs. Virtus Bologna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf197a26fc9a836609c70884e6ac011a6fe7c9d4244e85939aad9107d11a354d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus Bolognaof Monaco, Virtus Bologna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Virtus Bologna | 17c | 9,295$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,714.84 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virtus Bologna | 16c | 2,563$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,146.31 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…7487backed Virtus Bologna | 19c | 2,507$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Monaco | 45c | 2,112$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.89 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Virtus Bologna | 16c | 1,819$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Virtus Bologna | 23c | 1,630$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.35 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Virtus Bologna | 19c | 1,447$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.37 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Virtus Bologna | 19c | 1,000$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.92 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Virtus Bologna | 80c | 922.18$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.44 | 370 | 52.7%195 W · 175 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Virtus Bologna | 20c | 760.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Virtus Bologna | 17c | 686.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.59 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Monaco | 79c | 617$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.06 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Virtus Bologna | 18c | 521$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.22 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Virtus Bologna | 19c | 511.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.68 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Virtus Bologna | 68c | 443.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.54 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Monaco | 56c | 436.43$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.34 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Virtus Bologna | 20c | 393.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.86 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Monaco | 28c | 380.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Virtus Bologna | 72c | 357.96$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Virtus Bologna | 18c | 203$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.46 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Monaco | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…a06dbacked Monaco | 14c | 199.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Virtus Bologna | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Virtus Bologna | 20c | 142.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 265 | 44.5%118 W · 147 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Virtus Bologna | 18c | 106$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Virtus Bologna | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Virtus Bologna | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Virtus Bologna | 75c | 98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…d03dbacked Monaco | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Monaco | 37c | 84.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Virtus Bologna | 23c | 84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Virtus Bologna | 43c | 82.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac7…3a34backed Monaco | 33c | 81.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…899bbacked Virtus Bologna | 25c | 46.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 209 | 36.4%76 W · 133 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Monaco | 70c | 42.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Monaco | 64c | 31.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Monaco | 43c | 29.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…0b66backed Monaco | 51c | 25.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Monaco | 78c | 16.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.