Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1a614aa8a70e083d4b02bbfd6159103470885484b3920557b1df03961047f45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 12c | 525$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 11c | 448$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 12c | 432$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed Yes | 12c | 418$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed Yes | 6c | 387.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 12c | 367$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 11c | 357$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 12c | 341$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 11c | 320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 12c | 226$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1357…8f29backed Yes | 16c | 199.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 10c | 168.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 7c | 155.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 10c | 107.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 13c | 93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…e267backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will "F1" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Weapons" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Zootopia 2" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.