Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf209d44a70f36ec4663486efe6544406e5c66daa47e2c6ad4a5f9c4390325aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 50c | 1,169$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.31 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 44c | 777.83$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 768.51$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 697$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.33 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 407.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 58c | 389.22$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.44 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 339.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 57c | 279.11$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 57c | 211.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 195.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 58c | 191.9$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 45c | 160.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 40c | 158.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 150.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 147$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 141.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 35c | 107$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 59c | 101.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 54c | 78.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed No | 16c | 75.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 56c | 63.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 60.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked No | 39c | 60.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 32c | 52.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 24c | 51.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde92…cf29backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 48.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 22c | 47.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 78c | 43.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…2274backed Yes | 70c | 42.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae1…77e8backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 39c | 29.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 40c | 28.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…0359backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 65c | 27.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 26.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 41c | 26.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 51c | 26.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 62c | 26.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 73c | 25.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 78c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 60c | 23.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0a…2f0cbacked Yes | 64c | 17.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.