Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City be relegated?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2198807be87f46c5da64a615463f9d12b1650474cea5e362bc23b605dcb9fe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $248,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 0c | 50,590$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 0c | 30,084$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Yes | 12c | 30,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bea…2becbacked Yes | 6c | 29,823$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 10,701$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 2c | 7,122$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 3c | 5,127$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 7c | 1,283$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 3c | 860$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 802.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 2c | 722.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 2c | 571.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930f…da8bbacked Yes | 6c | 504.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc27e…47ebbacked Yes | 5c | 488.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 4c | 450$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 330.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 278.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 6c | 184$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 7c | 182.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City be relegated?this page
- Will Everton be relegated?No won
- Will Ipswich Town be relegated?Yes won
- Will Leicester City be relegated?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest be relegated?No won
- Will Southampton be relegated?Yes won
- Will Wolverhampton be relegated?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.