MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf23702b5ad97410fa9fdec5a27fa6ab410a0526447a75cb4b3c9f0ad1206476c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 1,467$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 2c | 987.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 897.49$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 883.65$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 46c | 846.68$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Over | 2c | 532.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…68f7backed Under | 68c | 371.5$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.88 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 51c | 353.26$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.85 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 42c | 326.38$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.3 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 21c | 304.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 244.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 195.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 58c | 170.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Under | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 50c | 138.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 56c | 119.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 118.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 109.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 42c | 94.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 83.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 50c | 79.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 39c | 60.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 55c | 47.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 42c | 41.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 41c | 41.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 37.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 36.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 43c | 34.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 59c | 30.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 30.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 55c | 24.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 55c | 23.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 51c | 22.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 58c | 22.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 68c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…2c72backed Under | 60c | 17.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.