MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c41db5e0f49b0f46411e06d8b65daa267b914c3fb6018911b47d17bc2e338f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 21,429$10,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,928.57 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 51c | 12,600$6,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,425.9 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,590 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 49c | 8,985$4,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,582.59 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…a6d3backed Under | 66c | 3,892$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 31c | 3,528$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 2,297$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.83 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,132$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 49c | 819.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 638$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 51c | 510.1$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.15 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 467.67$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 41c | 325.01$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.26 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 293.55$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 30c | 245$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 243.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…56c0backed Under | 42c | 232.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 229.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…45e5backed Over | 56c | 209$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 48c | 185.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.22 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 46c | 165.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 58c | 111.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…f8c0backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Under | 52c | 86.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 84.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 63c | 56.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 55c | 44.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 28c | 42.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 42c | 33.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…e223backed Over | 40c | 29.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Over | 41c | 27.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.