MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc08c0606d48fd9f5149b6ad205997608b9993920bcdedfb49cc09f453a2aba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 11,447$6,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,993.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 27c | 3,833$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.93 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 2,483$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 2,423$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Under | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 65c | 1,968$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.81 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 1,467$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.2 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 51c | 869.04$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.86 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 37c | 791.63$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.9 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 27c | 680.64$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 666.4$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Over | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 32c | 366$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 79c | 332.34$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 34c | 306.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 65c | 303.18$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.07 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 55c | 279.33$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 40c | 270.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.9 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 55c | 264$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 44c | 253.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 56c | 165.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 39c | 102.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 30c | 74.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 55c | 73.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 43c | 70.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 70.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 22c | 63.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 74c | 52.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 68c | 44.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…e101backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 42c | 38.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 55c | 29.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 56c | 24.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.