MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b1d9ea5106b30d73fcda95b67e588205316abf7531e125d7d27e1c8fe20234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 51,248$22,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,425.51 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 20,638$9,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,080.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros | 56c | 17,766$9,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,817.07 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Houston Astros | 56c | 9,000$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,960 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 8,806$4,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,874.69 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Houston Astros | 56c | 5,873$3,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.06 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 57c | 5,787$3,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,484.57 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 5,298$2,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,331.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 5,254$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.76 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Houston Astros | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Houston Astros | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Houston Astros | 56c | 2,541$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.15 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 58c | 2,499$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.5 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 56c | 2,214$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.25 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Houston Astros | 56c | 2,052$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.88 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Houston Astros | 56c | 1,998$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.27 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 56c | 1,864$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 1,829$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Houston Astros | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Houston Astros | 57c | 1,554$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.5 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 1,401$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.28 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 1,184$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 929.45$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros | 59c | 806.31$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.78 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 70c | 699.4$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 57c | 596$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 56c | 520.32$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Houston Astros | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 383.66$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Houston Astros | 56c | 351.78$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.78 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 346.51$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Houston Astros | 56c | 248$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 206.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Houston Astros | 56c | 140.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 133.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Houston Astros | 56c | 120.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Houston Astros | 75c | 116.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Houston Astros | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Houston Astros | 57c | 96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 59c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 90.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Houston Astros | 56c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…1927backed Houston Astros | 61c | 81.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Houston Astros | 57c | 81.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Houston Astros | 54c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Houston Astros | 57c | 61.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Houston Astros | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Houston Astros | 57c | 59.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Houston Astros | 59c | 57.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 57.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Houston Astros | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Milwaukee Brewers | 23c | 52.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Houston Astros | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Houston Astros | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Houston Astros | 74c | 37.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…92e9backed Houston Astros | 74c | 37.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Houston Astros | 75c | 33.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…67fabacked Houston Astros | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Houston Astros | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 59c | 24.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Houston Astros | 56c | 23.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…37e2backed Houston Astros | 56c | 20.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Houston Astros | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Houston Astros | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 68c | 18.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.