Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf264a048595307cf9bfe2de95958609bacd8c9238449a51a29342bb13858eb3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 6c | 1,370$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…e691backed Yes | 7c | 520.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 3c | 406.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 5c | 326$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 37c | 312.87$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 5c | 310.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 247.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 212.3$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 7c | 170.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 169.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 168.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 159.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 154.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 67c | 146.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 131.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 17c | 119.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 118.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 81.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 76.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed Yes | 28c | 74.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 35c | 74.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 18c | 69.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 71c | 69.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…87b5backed Yes | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 59.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 33c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 53.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 52.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 79c | 50.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 45.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 61c | 44.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 43.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 29c | 39.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 63c | 35.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 30.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 27.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 67c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 68c | 24.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 67c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 19.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.