Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4dfb0b5297b65e7d05a0f5d1d5c90ca1fa8559c30bb357a83c2238b064abab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 20c | 754.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.95 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 561$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 4c | 530.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 407.3$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 22c | 405.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.5 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 43c | 373.4$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.4 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…afc6backed No | 75c | 354.03$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 344.04$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 331.7$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.89 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 13c | 304.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…dd76backed No | 65c | 289.3$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 9c | 264.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 258.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 246.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 5c | 241.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 214.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 6c | 212.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 53c | 195.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 45c | 194.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 193.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 65c | 192.03$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 75c | 190$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 176.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 64c | 158.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…4acfbacked Yes | 32c | 156.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 144.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 130.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 43c | 117.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…e691backed No | 42c | 116.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 19c | 112.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 14c | 109.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 46c | 108.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 37c | 103.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 65c | 99.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 51c | 98.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 19c | 92.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 86.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5d…97a2backed No | 63c | 86.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde85…7ffcbacked No | 55c | 84.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 21c | 83.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 18c | 72.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 16c | 70.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 71c | 69.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 41c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked No | 19c | 66.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 42c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 64.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 62.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 71c | 61.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…3ac2backed No | 50c | 57.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 54.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 79c | 51.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 60c | 49.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 44.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fab…1ca3backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 50c | 36.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 32.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 56c | 30.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed No | 56c | 27.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…9bfbbacked Yes | 67c | 27.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 25.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 61c | 23.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked No | 51c | 22.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 75c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 74c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 51c | 20.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 75c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.