TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,403 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec86…60e4backed Yes20c754.99$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.951,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No21c561$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.335,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No4c530.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.162,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c407.3$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.315,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes22c405.18$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.522350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes43c373.4$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.431943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30b2…afc6backed No75c354.03$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.04366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No36c344.04$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.273,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No66c331.7$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.892,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No13c304.68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…dd76backed No65c289.3$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No9c264.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.241,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No30c258.08$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.226,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes14c246.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No5c241.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes16c214.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.918,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No6c212.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.122,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8023…cfd4backed Yes65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No53c195.64$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.619148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No45c194.82$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.151,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No30c193.22$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.164,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes65c192.03$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.927949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes75c190$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2611343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c176.72$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.14,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes78c170$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.465749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No64c158.82$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c30…4acfbacked Yes32c156.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes10c144.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.942,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes35c142.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.861250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c130.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.537,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes43c117.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1f…e691backed No42c116.78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.462330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes19c112.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8346549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No14c109.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8761752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes46c108.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3877851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No37c103.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.951,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.518862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8168335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No65c99.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4928737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No51c98.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes19c92.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2320438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes56c90$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.151,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No72c86.67$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.692,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b5d…97a2backed No63c86.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde85…7ffcbacked No55c84.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes21c83.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.285825.9%15 W · 43 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No18c72.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.421,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No16c70.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2919662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No70c70$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes71c69.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.328649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes41c67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x534a…023abacked No19c66.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.763447.1%16 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes42c65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes43c64.34$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6629835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c62.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No24c62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.679,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No71c61.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6331219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb6…3ac2backed No50c57.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c54.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.841,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes79c51.63$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.627079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2716045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No60c49.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6540352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes50c47.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8429740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes63c45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5634067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.263,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No38c44.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.811,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fab…1ca3backed Yes47c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.26560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No51c39.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes50c36.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No64c32.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.944,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c7a…7be5backed No56c30.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.783545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes64c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0840741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4101…d968backed No56c27.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.322540%10 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb051…9bfbbacked Yes67c27.24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.011450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No79c25.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5239968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f42…adbebacked Yes61c23.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.024158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked No51c22.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7211343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4526…2d4bbacked No71c22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.559159.3%54 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes75c21.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes74c21.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4840871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked No58c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1315558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes74c20.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.482268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes51c20.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8715545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No69c14.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3464960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes75c13.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4143559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.