Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2908d4b71ca0dc88c76e253e32acc55ffbab4781010a92aacd33bccc6ee3e8d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1841…78fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,119$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 50c | 599.57$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.22 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…a4bdbacked Yes | 24c | 446.57$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 441.25$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7085…624abacked Yes | 33c | 295$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 48c | 281.13$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 273.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 262.3$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 40c | 252.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 243.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 41c | 242.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 63c | 236.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 63c | 225.27$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…e691backed Yes | 24c | 220.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5d…97a2backed No | 62c | 202.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 202.87$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 70c | 195.69$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 32c | 182.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 36c | 157.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 38c | 156.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 151.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed No | 51c | 136.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 134.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 131.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 33c | 115.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 107.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 103.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f6…09bcbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 42c | 90.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 29c | 89.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 28c | 89.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 88.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 87.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 84.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 76.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked No | 67c | 74.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 41c | 73.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 37c | 67.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 64.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 41c | 62.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 63c | 61.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…b9d9backed Yes | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 56c | 54.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 54.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 29c | 54.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 53.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb04…8b26backed Yes | 57c | 52.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…316bbacked Yes | 30c | 50.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 50.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fe00backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 43.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 77c | 42.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…e627backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 33.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 58c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 34c | 32.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 74c | 32.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 67c | 31.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde85…7ffcbacked Yes | 39c | 28.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…632ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 27.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…3ac2backed Yes | 58c | 25.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…2406backed No | 78c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 67c | 24.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 53c | 23.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf723…a499backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 58c | 21.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 73c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.