TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,885 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1841…78fabacked Yes1c1,119$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes50c599.57$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.227832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10fa…a4bdbacked Yes24c446.57$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No67c441.25$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.312,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7085…624abacked Yes33c295$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes48c281.13$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.081,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c273.41$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c262.3$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.815,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes40c252.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes31c243.58$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.971,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes41c242.39$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3892028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed No63c236.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3111663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No63c225.27$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3435344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b1f…e691backed Yes24c220.19$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.662330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b5d…97a2backed No62c202.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c202.87$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.876,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No70c195.69$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7737056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes32c182.61$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4322350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes36c157.28$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9940741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes38c156.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c151.75$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.233,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed No51c136.15$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1515131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No72c134.78$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8139968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c131.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes33c115.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3143238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c107.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.447,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c105$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.115,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c103.44$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.93,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3368335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f6…09bcbacked Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes19c94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8611729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes42c90.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0211343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes36c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3729835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes29c89.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.336237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes28c89.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.245130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c88.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.951,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c87.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.324,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes35c84.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No69c76.02$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.522,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bb…ec4fbacked No67c74.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.92532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes41c73.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.661,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes37c67.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9814043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No65c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7563757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No68c64.34$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No41c62.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No63c61.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0728737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.123,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes36c59.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes32c58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a2…b9d9backed Yes42c57.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb87…bcebbacked No56c54.59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.872864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c54.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.361,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes29c54.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No73c53.14$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3588973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb04…8b26backed Yes57c52.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+128.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked No76c52.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6318862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40da…316bbacked Yes30c50.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4100%0 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No62c50.17$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.191,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3429740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.57660.5%46 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.084,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes42c47.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2423241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.863,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…fe00backed Yes34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No69c43.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.511,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No77c42.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.723677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No72c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.292,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b62…e627backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No68c39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3350373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe35…57c3backed Yes53c38.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010430.8%32 W · 72 L-16.9wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No56c33.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.012,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No58c33.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0919662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes34c32.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.088725.3%22 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4066…2407backed No74c32.41$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5513243.9%58 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No67c31.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.333154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde85…7ffcbacked Yes39c28.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4526…2d4bbacked No65c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.739159.3%54 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.041,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x319b…632ebacked No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c27.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.94,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb6…3ac2backed Yes58c25.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb918…2406backed No78c25.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.561369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.152,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No67c24.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2546743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No53c23.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked No75c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7516543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf723…a499backed Yes54c22.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2930…3666backed No65c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.75162.7%32 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No58c21.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.882,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes56c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6411038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c17.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x534a…023abacked No74c16.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.393447.1%16 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf39…b050backed No73c16.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.562560%15 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No64c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7612758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6564960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.