NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf28822abe583623b16aebc4793bd80bf28c923636040d569445dddae16d895cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 50c | 12,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 2,135$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Over | 55c | 1,006$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 52c | 1,004$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 963.99$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.26 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 547$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.86 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 50c | 522$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 234.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 50c | 215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 130.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…6404backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 531 | 41.8%222 W · 309 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…6d51backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…e3ecbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c6…830cbacked Over | 49c | 99.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 92.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 65.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 55c | 40.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd1…8f31backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 47.2%119 W · 133 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 33.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e4…5364backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0af3backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…49d5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…fbc2backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.