NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf29b5789d2ab45ed87bad75f7e46356653aeb0f3bdf61766812c3fa7560f7d22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 8,025$3,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,933 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…ebd8backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…cf0cbacked Over | 50c | 1,900$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3c…a7f8backed Over | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…fcb0backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…7c35backed Under | 50c | 530$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 53c | 482$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…d563backed Over | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…e49fbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 21c | 260$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 47c | 254.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.24 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…8863backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…eb57backed Over | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…007bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 79c | 190$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Over | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 48c | 144.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 117.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 51c | 100.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 51c | 21.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5this page
- Falcons vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-5.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.