NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2f5ac3d47dfa66be595fabb003e70271cae3e2ca7bff118ea3ec0ddaec05c6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Patriots, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Patriots | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,199.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Falcons | 50c | 38,385$19,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,192.72 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Patriots | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Patriots | 50c | 21,839$10,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,919.5 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Falcons | 51c | 20,544$10,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,077.55 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Falcons | 52c | 12,312$6,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,928.5 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Falcons | 51c | 9,204$4,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,532.9 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Falcons | 52c | 8,260$4,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,966.61 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Falcons | 50c | 5,835$2,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898.01 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Patriots | 50c | 5,376$2,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,688 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Falcons | 54c | 4,636$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,136.42 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Falcons | 52c | 3,783$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.58 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Falcons | 50c | 3,121$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.5 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Patriots | 46c | 2,942$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.55 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Falcons | 50c | 2,050$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…e5ffbacked Falcons | 52c | 1,900$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Patriots | 47c | 1,185$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…e56fbacked Patriots | 46c | 1,141$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Patriots | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Falcons | 53c | 933.96$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.96 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Patriots | 51c | 863$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.13 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Falcons | 53c | 824.29$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.42 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…9edabacked Patriots | 51c | 784.63$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Falcons | 49c | 780.1$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.85 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Patriots | 50c | 601.5$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.75 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf09…88b3backed Falcons | 54c | 522$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Patriots | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Patriots | 51c | 462.83$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.79 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Patriots | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Patriots | 47c | 397.53$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.84 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9aabbacked Falcons | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Falcons | 48c | 375.47$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.24 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Falcons | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Patriots | 47c | 358.27$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…db42backed Falcons | 54c | 321$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Patriots | 47c | 320.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed Patriots | 54c | 312.04$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Patriots | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Patriots | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Falcons | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e6…2ad9backed Falcons | 54c | 298$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Falcons | 51c | 239.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Patriots | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Patriots | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Falcons | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…552cbacked Patriots | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Patriots | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Falcons | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Patriots | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Patriots | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Patriots | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Patriots | 50c | 185.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Falcons | 55c | 183.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Patriots | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Patriots | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Patriots | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Falcons | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Falcons | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Patriots | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Falcons | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Falcons | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Falcons | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Falcons | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Falcons | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…4656backed Patriots | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…9e3bbacked Patriots | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b7…1a2fbacked Patriots | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…c257backed Patriots | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Falcons | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Patriots | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad21…cefcbacked Falcons | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d3bebacked Patriots | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Falcons | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…f1f5backed Falcons | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Patriots | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-5.5)this page
- Falcons vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.