NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33878a7f3d141aee34ab572dc9c215729d6fbcc8f43a68da64e6b4a2f6f00a67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Patriots, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d2a…3141backed Patriots | 63c | 873.02$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Falcons | 37c | 873.02$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Falcons | 35c | 349.88$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.42 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Patriots | 65c | 317$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.05 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Patriots | 65c | 215.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Falcons | 34c | 172$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Falcons | 35c | 170$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Patriots | 65c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Falcons | 35c | 126$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Falcons | 36c | 107$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Patriots | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Falcons | 37c | 81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…ab50backed Patriots | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Patriots | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Patriots | 66c | 22.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)this page
- Falcons vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-5.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.