NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c7876f1921804d49f38eba15b6da4909d5c7537525c3611b9bc064e3ee4c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Patriots, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68df…4815backed Patriots | 46c | 63,144$29,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,046.21 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Falcons | 54c | 33,165$17,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,255.9 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Falcons | 54c | 9,081$4,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,177.15 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Falcons | 54c | 7,397$3,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,405.51 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Falcons | 54c | 5,573$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,562.8 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Falcons | 54c | 4,250$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Falcons | 57c | 1,915$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.22 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Patriots | 43c | 1,481$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.85 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Falcons | 54c | 1,083$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.17 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Falcons | 55c | 809.1$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.65 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Falcons | 54c | 563.95$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.84 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Patriots | 45c | 403.88$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.94 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Falcons | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Patriots | 40c | 363.22$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.76 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725c…01a1backed Patriots | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Falcons | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Patriots | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Falcons | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…1893backed Falcons | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed Falcons | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…6632backed Falcons | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Falcons | 56c | 158$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Falcons | 55c | 129$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Falcons | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Falcons | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Falcons | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed Patriots | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Falcons | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Falcons | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Patriots | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Falcons | 53c | 51.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Patriots | 47c | 51.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Patriots | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Falcons | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Falcons | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Patriots | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)this page
- Falcons vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-5.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.