NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea1b640c04849c7acdda725d39823edf70e1ea4537727342e9a96a420c7ec940
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Patriots, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68df…4815backed Patriots | 53c | 50,000$26,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,500 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Falcons | 47c | 49,000$23,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,970 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Patriots | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,900 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Patriots | 50c | 23,061$11,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,530.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Falcons | 49c | 22,034$10,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,244.73 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Falcons | 47c | 18,392$8,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,748.02 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Falcons | 47c | 15,531$7,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,177.89 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Patriots | 54c | 13,105$7,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,098.67 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Falcons | 51c | 11,111$5,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,444.39 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Falcons | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,299.99 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Patriots | 50c | 8,393$4,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,195.23 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Falcons | 47c | 3,456$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.68 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Falcons | 47c | 2,813$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Falcons | 47c | 2,752$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.75 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Patriots | 51c | 2,092$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.36 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…5ee1backed Patriots | 52c | 2,071$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Patriots | 54c | 2,053$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.56 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Falcons | 46c | 2,050$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.98 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Falcons | 43c | 1,620$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.3 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Falcons | 46c | 1,429$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.91 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Patriots | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Patriots | 75c | 1,126$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.83 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Falcons | 47c | 1,100$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Patriots | 53c | 1,047$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Patriots | 49c | 1,017$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Patriots | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…501bbacked Patriots | 53c | 950$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Patriots | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…fcb0backed Falcons | 46c | 861$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Falcons | 47c | 750.45$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.75 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Patriots | 53c | 750$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Patriots | 53c | 620$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.6 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Falcons | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…8863backed Patriots | 54c | 560$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…1656backed Patriots | 57c | 549.99$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Patriots | 51c | 512$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Patriots | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Patriots | 53c | 456.32$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Patriots | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Falcons | 49c | 389.83$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.31 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Falcons | 46c | 326.25$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.17 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…007bbacked Patriots | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…d563backed Patriots | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Patriots | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Falcons | 48c | 282.11$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Falcons | 47c | 230$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Patriots | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Falcons | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Patriots | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Falcons | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Patriots | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…051fbacked Patriots | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Patriots | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Patriots | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Patriots | 55c | 182.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1592…8959backed Falcons | 47c | 181.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Falcons | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Falcons | 50c | 149.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Falcons | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Falcons | 47c | 127$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Patriots | 53c | 101.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Patriots | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Falcons | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Patriots | 53c | 95.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Patriots | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x408e…6cddbacked Patriots | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Falcons | 48c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Patriots | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…7b68backed Patriots | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Patriots | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Patriots | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…5e9fbacked Patriots | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…d54abacked Patriots | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Falcons | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Falcons | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)this page
- Falcons vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-5.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.