AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2aaaa6d1fcd7559976d868190f8a0dc1ac6080e93b7bf053ed083ccd3fab40e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 4,842$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 3c | 2,991$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 9c | 2,648$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.36 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…2b47backed No | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 7c | 1,891$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 10c | 777$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…c263backed No | 3c | 717.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 586.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 6c | 400.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 7c | 374.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 309.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 12c | 299.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 10c | 257.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 8c | 210.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 15c | 82.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56f…9e25backed Yes | 78c | 79.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.