Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2cef43706744b1e589950473dd8b7646a3e70c9406cd0bf607204c18b9d41b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Yes | 1c | 10,221$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a7…3a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,951$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 1c | 2,515$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 1,495$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910f…891ebacked Yes | 61c | 618.37$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 511.86$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 30c | 495.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 79c | 418.74$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 49c | 378.76$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.17 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 282.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 267.16$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 52c | 264.81$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 208.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 18c | 152.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 63c | 149.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 58c | 146.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 112.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 109.35$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 48c | 97.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 56c | 95.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 30c | 94.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 37c | 94.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 78c | 93.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 29c | 84.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 81.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 73.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 39c | 68.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 68.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 67.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 35c | 64.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 63.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 55.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 29c | 53.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 72c | 50.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 58c | 49.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 79c | 49.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 49.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 77c | 48.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 51c | 47.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed Yes | 67c | 45.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 28c | 43.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed No | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes | 40c | 42.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 44c | 42.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 64c | 39.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 54c | 38.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 48c | 37.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 62c | 37.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 30c | 37.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 73c | 34.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…b420backed Yes | 32c | 32.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 45c | 32.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 70c | 31.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed Yes | 48c | 29.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 63c | 27.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 60c | 27.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed Yes | 41c | 26.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…05f0backed Yes | 54c | 25.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 63c | 22.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…f928backed No | 65c | 15.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.